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Game Theory; Oh man, this stuff is awesome.
Topic Started: Dec 15 2006, 04:47 PM (611 Views)
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The Obfuscated One
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So, at the urgings of one of my friends, I picked up a textbook for a class that I'm not in.


I am so glad I did.


This game theory stuff is great.

Chapter six of the book is entirely about becoming a millionaire.

It's called Newcomb's problem.




Let's say there's a Being who reportedly has about a 90% chance of being right at predicting what you're going to do.

The Being approaches you with two boxes. One of them has a thousand dollars in it, which you can see because the box is transparent.

The second box is a mystery box.



The Being gives you two options. Take both boxes, or take only the mystery box.



If the Being thinks you will choose only the mystery box, then there is a million dollars in there. If the Being thinks you will choose both boxes, then the mystery box is empty.





What will you choose?








I absolutely love this book.
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ryu planeswalker
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Thats a tough choice.

Really in the end my choice will come down to a situational question.

"Did I pay a noticeable amount for said boxes?"
Malia Weinhagen talking about her father Dave Arneson
 

"The biggest thing about my dad's world is he wanted people to have fun in life," Weinhagen said. "I think we get distracted by the everyday things you have to do in life and we forget to enjoy life and have fun.

"But my dad never did," she said. "He just wanted people to have fun."
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You pay nothing for the boxes.
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ryu planeswalker
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Then even If i got nothing I would lose nothing, therefore I go for the Mystery Box.
Malia Weinhagen talking about her father Dave Arneson
 

"The biggest thing about my dad's world is he wanted people to have fun in life," Weinhagen said. "I think we get distracted by the everyday things you have to do in life and we forget to enjoy life and have fun.

"But my dad never did," she said. "He just wanted people to have fun."
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Juron Pilo
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10% odds for a .1% increase conjoined with 90% odds for an 99.9% loss? Go for the conservative mystery box, dur.

Conservative is not always the best answer though.
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It was originally posed as a free will problem though, so the thing is do you actually believe that the Being really is able to predict what you're gonna do, or do you think it's all just hype.
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Juron Pilo
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edit: oh nevermind. that doesn't work. lemme try saying it from another angle.

too tired for this... gotta sleep.
edit: lol ryu.

I gotta better answer.
I would cooperate with the being by only taking the million anyways. He clearly is expecting cooperation. Not lieing to him the first time while still trying to maximize profit might encourage further dealings in the future. I'd go for 1000 but a millions just too big to pass up. If this thing has a million dollars... :P

There, no moral holes in that one!
edit: After all, my goal is to profit greatly myself, not take everything the being has. For that matter, how much does the being have besides the boxes? Eh eh?
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ryu planeswalker
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Lets take this from a DnD perspective.

are the First three lines OOC or IC?
Malia Weinhagen talking about her father Dave Arneson
 

"The biggest thing about my dad's world is he wanted people to have fun in life," Weinhagen said. "I think we get distracted by the everyday things you have to do in life and we forget to enjoy life and have fun.

"But my dad never did," she said. "He just wanted people to have fun."
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Newb
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The Obfuscated One
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Oh, you would have heard that the Being is fairly good at predicting things, but you wouldn't know how good, and you wouldn't know whether it was all hype or not.




Not that it matters how good, seeing as how if the Being only predicts your actions correctly 51% of the time (which could be accomplished quite easily by, say, your mother) then it's still safer to choose the mystery box only.


So the real question is: How well do you think this mysterious Being knows you?
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ryu planeswalker
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well since it costs nothing I would still go with the mystery box, just for the 50% chance of getting something decent.
Malia Weinhagen talking about her father Dave Arneson
 

"The biggest thing about my dad's world is he wanted people to have fun in life," Weinhagen said. "I think we get distracted by the everyday things you have to do in life and we forget to enjoy life and have fun.

"But my dad never did," she said. "He just wanted people to have fun."
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Juron Pilo
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Is it important? Why are we after all the money the being has to offer in the first place? And its just 1000 dollars. Kinda a selfish goal to begin with, if we're assuming this is a being with free will and all that.
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ryu planeswalker
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I am under the assumtion that there is something that will make the game simplier but is not needed. that costs a million dollars coming right around the corner
Malia Weinhagen talking about her father Dave Arneson
 

"The biggest thing about my dad's world is he wanted people to have fun in life," Weinhagen said. "I think we get distracted by the everyday things you have to do in life and we forget to enjoy life and have fun.

"But my dad never did," she said. "He just wanted people to have fun."
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Gnarl
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"Now hang on there, a boat is just a boat, but the mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat!"

Regardless though, I'd probably take the box. I could take a thousand dollars which I can earn at my job easily enough, or I could take the Mystery Box which could range from being something life changing to being nothing at all.
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Juron Pilo
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You mean sorta like newb here being our meta-mystery being? Honesty is still the best policy. Million it is :P.
edit: baroned.
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The Being gives you two options. Take both boxes, or take only the mystery box.
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ryu planeswalker
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The thing about the 1000 dollars is that I could put it in the bank and not touch it, leaving it incase I have a month with few hours, which would lead to one less thing for me to worry about.
Malia Weinhagen talking about her father Dave Arneson
 

"The biggest thing about my dad's world is he wanted people to have fun in life," Weinhagen said. "I think we get distracted by the everyday things you have to do in life and we forget to enjoy life and have fun.

"But my dad never did," she said. "He just wanted people to have fun."
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Gnarl
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Juron Pilo,Dec 15 2006
12:35 PM
The Being gives you two options. Take both boxes, or take only the mystery box.

What do we know about this being?

If the situation was "I'm walking down the street and some random person says 'You can have one box or both boxes'," then I would take both boxes. Logically it's the most beneficial solution. However, if we're told "You're walking down the street and the well known psychic Pellen the Predictor pops up and says, 'One box has a thousand dollars and one box is a mystery. If you only take the mystery box it might be something good, and if you take both boxes the mystery box might contain something bad'," then it would be harder.
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Juron Pilo
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Yar, this is a false delimma.

There is another option: communicate and get more information before taking a box.
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Drekal
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More information.

It is an interesting puzzle, because, as is stated, people will divide fairly evenly on the issue, believing that the answer is obvious.

Hmm. Perhaps this could be used as part of a personality test.
That which holds the image of an angel...
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Amy: You do have a plan, don't you?
Doctor: Of course I do!

New Objective: Think of a plan.
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ryu planeswalker
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Theres a question for the Next Ogre battle game.
Malia Weinhagen talking about her father Dave Arneson
 

"The biggest thing about my dad's world is he wanted people to have fun in life," Weinhagen said. "I think we get distracted by the everyday things you have to do in life and we forget to enjoy life and have fun.

"But my dad never did," she said. "He just wanted people to have fun."
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Newb
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The Obfuscated One
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I just went and grabbed the same link Drek did to post it here...
Ah well.
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