| Welcome to Captain SNES. We hope you enjoy your visit. You're currently viewing our forum as a guest. This means you are limited to certain areas of the board and there are some features you can't use. If you join our community, you'll be able to access member-only sections, and use many member-only features such as customizing your profile, sending personal messages, and voting in polls. Registration is simple, fast, and completely free. Join our community! If you're already a member please log in to your account to access all of our features: |
| Game Theory; Oh man, this stuff is awesome. | |
|---|---|
| Tweet Topic Started: Dec 15 2006, 04:47 PM (614 Views) | |
| MFD | Dec 15 2006, 05:52 PM Post #21 |
|
THIEF!
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
I always found the Prisoner's Dilemma (the staple Game Theory example) to be more exciting, even when you figure out the answer. You and your partner in crime are hauled in for questioning by the police for a crime you committed. They can't prove you committed the crime, but they've separated you and your partner nevertheless. They're offering you a deal. If you squeal on your partner, you'll get a monetary reward, and he'll go to jail for a long time. If you don't squeal, you get to walk. BUT! You know your partner is being offered the same deal. Which makes the decision more complex. If you both squeal, you'll both go to jail for a medium amount of time. If one of you squeals and the other doesn't, the one who doesn't squeal goes away for a long time, and the squealer gets away with extra money. If neither of you confess, you both get away. EDIT: I like this game better because it has nothing to do with a stated amount of predictive prowess on either party. |
|
Oceans rise, empires fall I need to know If the world says it's time to go Tell me will you freak out? | |
![]() |
|
| Juron Pilo | Dec 15 2006, 06:10 PM Post #22 |
|
Sage
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
Yar, I've allready given that game a good run through though. The ultimate strategy is to pick out a select group of people to conspire with. You probably woln't personally win but someone in that group probably will. ![]() edit: are we talking the reiterated model, or the base model, because in the base model the answer is pretty simple and there is only one real answer. |
![]() |
|
| MFD | Dec 15 2006, 06:31 PM Post #23 |
|
THIEF!
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
Huh? Um... that's not how you play. You and your partner don't go in with a set plan, you don't pick a select partner whom you know you can conspire with. The optimal strategy is to pick the answer with the optimal outcome regardless of your partner's choice. If you squeal, you either get money, or go to jail for a medium amount of time. If you don't squeal, you either get away, or go to jail for a long time. Since getting money is better than getting away, AND since going to jail for a medium amount of time is better than going to jail for a long time, you choose to squeal. Of course, following this train of thought, your partner will also choose to squeal, but whatever. If he squeals and you didn't, you go to jail for a long time. EDIT: However, if you play this game alot with the same two actors (say, two countries deciding on an arms treaty), eventually you both will pick the ideal outcome and get away scot-free. |
|
Oceans rise, empires fall I need to know If the world says it's time to go Tell me will you freak out? | |
![]() |
|
| Juron Pilo | Dec 15 2006, 08:52 PM Post #24 |
|
Sage
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
I'm talking a mass reiterated version with randomly selected partners. See wikipedia article. |
![]() |
|
| Alan Bates | Dec 15 2006, 09:34 PM Post #25 |
|
Transcendent
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
So, what do those two boxes look like? |
![]() |
|
| Juron Pilo | Dec 15 2006, 09:39 PM Post #26 |
|
Sage
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
The wiki article speaks of a glass one... |
![]() |
|
| MFD | Dec 15 2006, 09:43 PM Post #27 |
|
THIEF!
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
Well, apparently we're speaking of two different things. Could you supply a link for the wiki article? You can't say "See wiki article" and not provide a link. That's just poor manners. Also, I think it's clear that I'm talking about the basic prisoner's dilemma. And the answer's not IMMEDIATELY clear, as I find out every time we mock up a dilemma in class, and I always squeal while my partner does not. |
|
Oceans rise, empires fall I need to know If the world says it's time to go Tell me will you freak out? | |
![]() |
|
| Alan Bates | Dec 15 2006, 09:52 PM Post #28 |
|
Transcendent
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
In that case, I pick the one that I know has money in it. |
![]() |
|
| Arc | Dec 15 2006, 10:12 PM Post #29 |
|
Sage
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
Mystery all the way! |
![]()
| |
![]() |
|
| Blackdeathdraco | Dec 15 2006, 10:56 PM Post #30 |
![]()
Sage
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
following the rules of that mental challannge, I say since I can have both, why not take both. The second box will either have 1mill or none so i would rather take the 50% chance of getting $1,001,000 then just a posible $0. |
|
When I'm bored, I like to wander around and cast X-Zone on random things. "Sanity is the illusion of the insane." -Me <A href='http://sigs.guildlaunch.net'><img src='http://sigs.guildlaunch.net/wsig.php/8136909YlbMX.png' border='0'></a> img src="http://www.animecubed.com/billy/pics/sigs/BDD.jpg"><br> Be the Ultimate Ninja! Play <a href="http://www.animecubed.com/billy/?BDD">Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN</a> today! | |
![]() |
|
| Vortex | Dec 15 2006, 11:14 PM Post #31 |
![]()
Master
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
The boxes? The answer really is obvious. You kick the guy in the nads, steal all three boxes and then piss on his prone body for effect. Everyones a winner. |
| |
![]() |
|
| Algasir | Dec 15 2006, 11:16 PM Post #32 |
![]()
Green hair!
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
I... I'm with Vort here. |
![]() |
|
| Blackdeathdraco | Dec 15 2006, 11:27 PM Post #33 |
![]()
Sage
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
Now, now. There are only 2 boxes, both opque. One with for sure $1,000 and the other filled with dark smoke and has a 50% chance of holding $1,000,000. And there are only 2 choices: Both or just the unknown. |
|
When I'm bored, I like to wander around and cast X-Zone on random things. "Sanity is the illusion of the insane." -Me <A href='http://sigs.guildlaunch.net'><img src='http://sigs.guildlaunch.net/wsig.php/8136909YlbMX.png' border='0'></a> img src="http://www.animecubed.com/billy/pics/sigs/BDD.jpg"><br> Be the Ultimate Ninja! Play <a href="http://www.animecubed.com/billy/?BDD">Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN</a> today! | |
![]() |
|
| Robotech Master | Dec 15 2006, 11:57 PM Post #34 |
![]()
Councilor
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
In this case wouldn't you always take both, seeing as there isn't even a perceived penalty for only taking one? |
|
"Death is a primitive concept, I prefer to think of them as battling evil, in another dimension!" -Gary Gygax http://tv.zeroboy.net/springtime Check out Red (White Meteos) and I's livestream! | |
![]() |
|
| Blackdeathdraco | Dec 16 2006, 12:06 AM Post #35 |
![]()
Sage
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
Henice the pendelum. Normaly, out of the blue with somewhat limited time to think about the options, a person doesn't think about all of the options because they just look at the primary goal or the million dollars, and not the posibility of gaining 1 million +1 thousand dollars. |
|
When I'm bored, I like to wander around and cast X-Zone on random things. "Sanity is the illusion of the insane." -Me <A href='http://sigs.guildlaunch.net'><img src='http://sigs.guildlaunch.net/wsig.php/8136909YlbMX.png' border='0'></a> img src="http://www.animecubed.com/billy/pics/sigs/BDD.jpg"><br> Be the Ultimate Ninja! Play <a href="http://www.animecubed.com/billy/?BDD">Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN</a> today! | |
![]() |
|
| Robotech Master | Dec 16 2006, 01:12 AM Post #36 |
![]()
Councilor
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
Yea, I don't really see the point of doing anything else either, even with the mindreader. It's not like he's 100% correct. |
|
"Death is a primitive concept, I prefer to think of them as battling evil, in another dimension!" -Gary Gygax http://tv.zeroboy.net/springtime Check out Red (White Meteos) and I's livestream! | |
![]() |
|
| LuppyLuptonium | Dec 16 2006, 02:56 AM Post #37 |
|
Transcendent
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
I'm confused.... Newb read a book about Deal or no Deal? |
| |
![]() |
|
| Arc | Dec 16 2006, 03:13 AM Post #38 |
|
Sage
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
I say be nice and just take one like the guy says... |
![]()
| |
![]() |
|
| Juron Pilo | Dec 16 2006, 04:10 AM Post #39 |
|
Sage
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_delimma Sorry, thought someone already did, although with the amount of times I posted previous I would think it would be obvious what article I was refering to.
|
![]() |
|
| Big McStrongmuscle | Dec 17 2006, 01:36 AM Post #40 |
|
Master
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
|
...Actually, I crunched the numbers on that box thing. Statistically speaking, the only time its worth taking both boxes is if the Being has a 50.05% chance or less of being correct. And those personal experiments with the prisoner's dilemma can get really interesting, if you vary the precise constraints. One fun way is to choose the partner anonymously from a known population of the prisoner's friends and enemies. |
| |
![]() |
|
| Go to Next Page | |
| « Previous Topic · General Posting · Next Topic » |





![]](http://z4.ifrm.com/static/1/pip_r.png)










2:11 PM Jul 11