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Day 3
Topic Started: Sep 5 2011, 06:22 PM (1,942 Views)
Iceburg
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3rd rate treasure hunter
Nmaa...No more than anyone else, I'd say. I already claimed that I didn't visit anyone, so I don't see any reports coming that would need more details. I just didn't want to influence anyone else's claim, should they be attempting to fake one.

According to what Ryuuma said, one of those two are responsible for his misfortune, as everyone else has claimed.

I received no item. I could do nothing, so I did nothing.

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Salome
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So, Iceburg claiming to have not received an item means we only have one means we only have one claim to go as the other obviously stole Ryuma's item.

Anyone know which items haven't been claimed yet?
I know the Binoculars are among them, but apart from that I don't have a clue.
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Salome
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Whoops, that is one messed up first sentence.

Oh, and I'd rather not suffer Iceburg's itemless fate today, obviously. Ignore this post please :P
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Johnny
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24 posts weren't enough for Iceburg. :omg:

Overslept, have to leave now but hopefully the last two will come around soon.
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Iceburg
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Seriously. I gave that boxman a strongly worded letter.
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Spacey
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I can confirm that Moria had the "Bodyguard" item.

I was thinking about keeping my item secret but with both (?) ID scanners gone it doesn't matter anymore:

I had a Mafia Suit and was compelled to wear it. Because it went so well with my helmet. It made me look part of the mafia last night, of course.

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Spacey
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I think we have 3 mafia players but 4 might be possible.

Four mafia players:

4 vs. 5, No lynch/Mislynch
Nightkill -> 4 vs. 4/3
We lose

4 vs. 5, Lynch mafia -> 3 vs. 5
Nightkill -> 3 vs. 4
We lose if mafia gets the gun or the cake

If there are 4 mafia members we are pretty screwed anyway so I'll assume that there are just three. Which I belive anyway.

Three mafia members:

3 vs. 6, Mislynch -> 3 vs. 5
Nightkill -> 3 vs. 4
We lose if the mafia gets the gun or the cake

3 vs 6 -> No lynch
Nightkill -> 3 vs. 5
We lose if the mafia gets the gun and the cake

3 vs. 6 -> Lynch mafia -> 2 vs. 6
Nightkill -> 2 vs. 5
a) Mafia gets the gun -> 2 vs. 4
b) Townie gets the gun -> 2 vs. 4 or 1 vs. 5
In any case we don't lose

According to that it seems more sensible not to lynch today (although we then definitely lose if there are 4 bad guys) unless we have a player we really believe to be mafia. Which we won't get.
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Spacey
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And I changed my mind. The odds aren't that high that they will get the gun and/or the cake, are they?



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Kalifa
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inept treasure hunter
I stole Ryumas item as I thought and still think that he is Mafia.

Chopperini, I want to know the name of your item. And what you could do with it.




I don't like how you rushfully ended the day last time. We weren't finished to decide on stuff.


And guys, I want a lynch. A lynch that will get us the Mafia


Vote Lynch: Ryuma



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Chopperini
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Alright let me consider yer scenario there, 3 vs. 5 (assumin' mislynch). Odds are gonna be rough cause we ain't know how many items are in the pool. 2 of us already died without no possession on 'em, and we just saw us a new item today. Makes sense I 'spose, maf suit and townie suit, makin' it possible for both sides ta get somethin' useless. Though I'd hate ta get scanned wearin' that on accident an' try to explain my way out.

But I be digressin'. 3 vs 5 means, as ya said, kill + gunshot an' it's over. I'm gonna assume 10 items with 8 people left, ta estimate. Chance of anyone getting either the gun or cake is 1/5. Multiply that by alignment ration, and we got a 3/25 chance of it happenin. That ain't too high. Then ya gotta take into account that there's the protection items, too. Lookin' at it that way, a lynch ain't too risky, right?

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