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Scottish Independence Vote; 18th September 2014
Topic Started: Sep 17 2013, 01:44 PM (6,421 Views)
rumbaba
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A year to go, so campaigning will start in earnest soon. Here's a place to discuss it.
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Mobson
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Let's start with a joke, of sorts, from Kevin Bridges at last month's Live at the Edinburgh Comedy Fest...."Are we getting excited about that in Scotland? Independence - the Referendum - we're letting 16 year olds vote, that'll secure a record number of spoilt ballot papers..."Nicola Sturgeon loves the bobby" (Scottish slang for the penis)...loads of laughter from audience...

On Sport: Not sure what Andy Murray, Scotland's most famous tennis player, thinks about this having just represented GB this weekend in the Davis Cup and where they are now back in the World Group, but Scotland will press ahead with plans to have Olympic and Paralympic teams at Rio 2016 if the country votes for independence in a year's time, says Scottish Sports Minister Shona Robison.

Ahead of the referendum on 18th September, 2014, the MSP told BBC Sport she was confident Scotland would meet the strict conditions in order to become an Olympic nation*.

"We're comfortable and assured Scotland will have its own Olympic and Paralympic team. It will bring many benefits," she said.

Robison, the Scottish National Party MSP for Dundee City East, said more Scots would get the chance to participate in Brazil and future Games if independence became a reality. She also insisted Scottish athletes would not be disadvantaged by independence, even though they would be denied access to traditional funding streams and facilities.

"We have made substantial investments," said Robison, explaining that Scottish athletes would have access to a "fantastic new velodrome and a fantastic new sports arena" in Glasgow as well as a new £25m performance centre for sport in Edinburgh.

But not everyone is convinced that Scotland, which hosts the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow - would be better off competing as a separate nation. Badminton player Imogen Bankier, who represented Scotland at the 2010 Commonwealth Games and Britain at the 2012 Olympics, has told BBC Sport that her country does not have the facilities, funding or depth of talent to make a major impact at future Olympics.

"We're lucky with the way that it stands now for Scotland," said the 25-year-old from Glasgow.
"We can tap into the English system and be part of Team GB when it suits us and use it our advantage. Independence would mean we would lose that. That's only going to see sports suffer."

I think people will find that as with Sport, there will be other areas affected by split with Britain...

*For Scotland to become an Olympic nation in its own right, it would need to fulfil several criteria:
1. To be an independent state recognised by the international community
2. To have a solid sporting structure, such as national federations, sports clubs, etc
3. To have at least five national federations affiliated to international federations with sports included in the Olympic programme.

Edited by Mobson, Oct 5 2013, 01:01 PM.
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rumbaba
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I think sport is the least of Scotland's worries.

I have intelligent, well-educated friends who have never voted Scot Nat in their lives (not kilt-wearing, flag-waving Jocks at all) but feel that, regardless of how Scottish people vote, they will be ruled by a London-based elite that doesn't share their values. The 'choice', as they see it, without independence, is a full-on, old-Etonian, Bullingdon Club Tory party or some kind of 'Tory-Lite' Labour party that would do very little different. They know it's a leap in the dark but they feel it's worth the risk, which is quite surprising. It remains to be seen if the, naturally cautious, Scots will be persuaded to take the leap.
Edited by rumbaba, Sep 18 2013, 12:58 PM.
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rumbaba
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A year is a long time in politics, a couple of scandals might swing it for Alex Salmomd (not that he really wants it). I don't know what my status will be if Scotland splits from the UK. Will I have dual nationality, will I be Scottish (birth) or British (residence)? I don't get a vote <erm>
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Rikiiboy
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Hello rumbaba,well...Scottish independence? The Tories will be cheering here in England for evermore,but it could end our Labour parties chances of being in the big seat here for a very long time.Inasmuchas Labour would lose 46 seats in the big house and the tories only one.
Here in the UK there are lots of people like myself (thick) I suppose who think that we should hold various referendi on religion,immigration or major issues such as our involvement in the European Community.Yet I can see the reasoning behind them (the state) for not letting us all vote and that reason IMHO is that it is obviously to protect the minorities from the masses.
Which brings me over to the Scottish independence issues?
With this once in a lifetime vote on the independence for Scotland (remember the Egyptians after the Morsi win by democratic means here) just what will there be left in Scotland for those people who did not vote for Scotland to be independent and what could be their next move? Rumbaba and The Emoticons
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The_Bush_Doctor
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As there is very little real debate going on, I fear Scotland is sleepwalking into separation.

As for the Scots hating the Tories, I dont blame them. I live in the Garden of England and I hate the Tories too.
<comeonandy>
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chocster

Sat Sri Akal. Bole So Nihal.

My dear The_Bush_Doctor.

How are you, the kids the missus, been a long toime, too long. David Moyes? I am already bored with the Scotland's independence push, wake me up when the result comes through.

Alex Salmond seems a very good politician. Possibly better than the other three main leaders. More personable, for starters.
Edited by chocster, Nov 18 2013, 06:00 AM.
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Mobson
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All systems go from the political parties in Scotland...from 10am this morning the Scottish Government reveal their plans for independence in the form of a white paper....a lengthy tomb of 670 pages of detail to wade through - the length of a Harry Potter then...for the people of Scotland, including for the first time 16 and 17 years olds, to vote Yes or No to eventually - well 18th September 2014.

Alastair Darling, who heads up the Better Together campaign, has been flashing those black eyebrows on BBC breakfast tv in support of the No vote...
Edited by Mobson, Nov 26 2013, 10:16 AM.
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Mobson
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Not sure anyone here, apart from Rum, will want to wade through this - lots and lots of imponderables like border controls, oil sharing, pension rights, child care, retaining sterling, being part of the european union and being able to receive strictly come dancing via the BBC (question posed by Nick Robinson of the BBC news!)... already it looks like Alex Salmond will have lots of questions to answer after it's publication and I only hope he keeps fit and well to deal with them for at the moment he looks pretty puffed-up facially and a tad overweight and co-incidentally the launch party are discussing life expectancy being far less in Scotland than England right now!
Edited by Mobson, Nov 26 2013, 10:39 AM.
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rumbaba
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I want to know what my status will be. I don't have a vote, fair enough, but I don't know if I will have dual nationality by virtue of my birth or if I would have to apply for that. What about non-Scottish brits who are domiciled in Scotland?

I will wait for the analysis on facebook by my good friend Tbone Duffy, who has become quite politicised of late and who is much exercised by the independence vote.

Here's his wee anthem for independence 'Country of the blind'. I can't check it at work, I hope this is it :)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJKxW3y3Szs
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Rikiiboy
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Hi all,it'll be a very difficult issue seperating the wheat from the chaff in this independence issue.It'll take a bit more that songs of revolution or fancy rhetoric.With nearly 9m folks here living in poverty there has probably never been a more pressing task than just looking after our own.
About 1m people of Scottish Reside in England alone,who pays their pensions?
If we are not very careful here this will turn into a messy divorce with the ambulance chasers getting all our cash.
We shouldn't be letting anyone pull the wool over our eyes either,wake up folks! this may sound like the three bears but it's future lives and welfares we are toying with here.
Edited by Rikiiboy, Nov 27 2013, 09:38 AM.
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Mobson
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You say 'wake up folks' - but in truth this is completely out of our hands - saying Yes or No to a form of independence that only Scots people, born and bred and living in Scotland, are eligible to take part in ...so we here in England will have to rely on our super-duper, ultra-efficient and effective politicians to handle it on our behalf.... <irony>
Edited by Mobson, Nov 27 2013, 11:27 AM.
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Rikiiboy
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Mobson
Nov 27 2013, 09:56 AM
You say 'wake up folks' - but in truth this is completely out of our hands - saying Yes or No to a form of independence that only Scots people, born and bred and living in Scotland, are eligible to take part in ...so we here in England will have to rely on our super-duper, ultra-efficient and effective politicians to it on our behalf....
Hi Mobson, if there was a vote from our side on these independence issues I have no doubt that our lot lot would vote to get rid of all three of the others.
Because people often vote with their hearts not their heads.
I seriously cant imagine how anyone getting a change of landlord thinks they'll get a reduction in their rents.
This rich/wealthy lot have got this entire country divided up between themselves (excluding big chunks sold off to wealthy foriegners) they aint going to give up what they've got are they (look at the Duke of Westminster etc) The only thing that would change in Scotland is that larger chunks of that nation would be flogged off too?
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rumbaba
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There is nothing that guarantees independence, even with a 'yes' vote. The devil is always in the detail and, given this is not a shared aspiration for all the involved parties, it could be made difficult to the point of impossibility. However, I think a 'yes' vote this time round is unlikely but another 5 years of economic policy that continues to reinforce the 'rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer' as the way forward will push Scotland over the edge. I think I will see it in my lifetime but not this time around.
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Rikiiboy
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What alternative party to the SNP will that Scottish people be able to vote for if Scotland votes for independence?
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rumbaba
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There would be an election and I imagine it would be contested by all the main parties.
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rumbaba
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I am far from convinced by the case for an independent Scotland, at least in the short to medium term, but I think there is a debate to be had and I am very disturbed by the tactics of the 'No alliance' to stifle any real debate, favouring threats and intimidation. Most things can be negotiated with goodwill on both sides, whether it's monetary union, official or unofficial, or EU membership. What we seem to have from the Westminster alliance is a declaration of bad will. It's dishonourable, anti-democratic and shameful.
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Rikiiboy
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Hello rumbaba,there are about 800,000 Scots already living in the rest of the UK.
I wonder what all the no to independence voters can do if they lose in this referendum?
It's a once in a lifetime vote which will also mean a permanent change for all of those who voted against it.
Maybe many who cannot take such a massive change of circumstances will choose with their feet too?
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rumbaba
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My problem currently is not with the result but with the way the debate is being conducted. It will be the duty of a responsible Westminster government to bring about as a smooth and pain-free a separation as possible, in the event of the democratic decision of the Scottish people to be in favour of independence. The threats and bullying tatics of Westminster demean politics and democracy. Let's have the debate and, whatever the result, behave with goodwill.
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Rikiiboy
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Hello rumbaba,it makes no difference to me what ever way the people Scottish vote,it appears Scotland wishes to draw a line of segregation where there has been no real borders.
It also seems to me that it is Salmond doing the whingeing.Surely the Scottish people are entitled to hear the pitfalls as well as the thirty pieces of silver Salmond is offering?

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
Edited by Rikiiboy, Feb 17 2014, 10:18 AM.
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rumbaba
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I am not in favour of independence but I don't think the debate is being conducted fairly. There are issues that will have to be addressed by negotiation but these are being presented as insurmountable by the parties at Westmister, who are effectively saying 'we will make these problems insurmountable by refusing to negotiate'. It's an abuse of power and it is anti-democratic. Scotland is already part of the EU and it's nonsense to suggest it should have to apply to join: it's a special case and it is in nobody's interests to take this line, which is preposterous. The Spanish don't want to encourage the Catalans in their independence ambitions, which is why they are doing what they can to stop Scottish independence, but, as far as markets are concerned, the least distruption the better and it would be madness for the EU to cut of it's nose to spite it's face. There would be a negotiation and it would be resolved.
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Rikiiboy
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Hello rumbaba,what's the point of Scotland voting for independence if they still want the pound and be a member of the European community?
You can't be independent in the EEC,all our votes here are useless while Brussels is still holding the reins,innit? <brickwall>
Edited by Rikiiboy, Feb 25 2014, 05:56 PM.
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rumbaba
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No country can be completely independent Riki, this is the reality of the 21st century
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Rikiiboy
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Ulterior motive?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100255404/alex-salmond-the-snp-and-fascist-scotland/
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Rikiiboy
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Well... the W.NI.E. union might save a few bob on their NHS bills after September here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27309446
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rumbaba
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On balance, I think the timing is wrong for independence and, if I had a vote (which I don't), I would probably vote against. However, we are not having a fair debate and the No campaign, together with most of the news media, has been pumping out a relentless stream of scare stories and smears which devalues the debate. This Telegraph blog is typical of the sort of poisonous rubbish that you get from the media. The Yes side is not without it's nutters but they don't do it under the veneer of a national newspaper.
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Rikiiboy
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I had to laugh when I have just read in the daily mail that 3% of Scottish youngsters think Alex Salmond is a football team manager. <laugh>
Edited by Rikiiboy, Jun 9 2014, 10:10 PM.
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rumbaba
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Yes, they think he should be tinned
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Norm Deplume
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"I had to laugh when I have just read in the daily mail that 3% of Scottish youngsters think Alex Salmond is a football team manager."
#########################################################

Run a football team???
I think he would find it difficult to run a bath!
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Mobson
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J K Rowling has donated a million squid to keep Scotland in the UK!

The writer of the Harry Potter books, who lives in Edinburgh, has publicly backed the Better Together campaign. Explaining her decision on her website, Ms Rowling said there was a "denial of risks" within the "Yes" campaign.

She also said there was a "fringe of nationalists who like to demonise anyone who is not blindly and unquestionably pro-independence".

Full story here.... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27793967
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rumbaba
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http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27764295

This programme was a contrived piece of nonsense from start to finish. Janet tells us that she knows Scotland well, goes there a lot and that she likes and gets on with the Scottish people. However, the whole premise of the programme was that she 'believed' the Scottish independence debate was about hating the English. After a bit of strolling around, chatting to various Scots and eliciting such profundities as 'you can't unboil an egg' , she concluded that that isn't actually what the independence debate is about and that the majority of Scots don't hate the English. Presumably, on her numerous trips north in the past, she hasn't actually enaged any Scottish people in conversation or she would already have known that. I so wanted someone to say 'I don't hate the English but I hate you' , it would have been a great TV moment

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waiting4atickle
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You don't have to be Scottish to hate JSP.

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rumbaba
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but it helps :)
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rumbaba
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Jings, my post (identical to #31) got modded on the BBC POV board :(
Edited by rumbaba, Jun 11 2014, 12:28 PM.
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rumbaba
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BTW, Caiss contributed to my thread on the BBC POV board, so he is still in circulation, which is good to know <ok>
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waiting4atickle
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Obviously not all POVs are welcome.

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rumbaba
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/mbpointsofview/NF1951566?thread=8455062
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rumbaba
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Janet Street-Porter
fancies herself as a TV reporter
but I can say with absolute veracity
that I don't fancy her in any capacity
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rumbaba
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They took my thread down :(
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waiting4atickle
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You should start an epetition to get it reinstated - I'll sign.

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Mobson
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Can't abide JSP! She really is a <devi>;; ...Unlike JKR who is an <angel> <rose> ...a very very wealthy one to boot!
Edited by Mobson, Aug 24 2014, 07:43 AM.
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Rikiiboy
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Will the wee fishy get the wee dishy,when the vote comes in?

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/08/live-updates-salmond-vs-darling-television-debate/
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waiting4atickle
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Just been reading that "Scotland could lose BBC shows like Strictly Come Dancing if it votes for independence" - that should give a big boost to the Yes vote.

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Mobson
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The final televised debate Scotland Decides: Salmond verses Darling is being repeated right now on BBC1 ...it's heated and confrontational, Salmond: "One-trick pony Darling"...Darling: "Don't you lecture me"....hardly the programme to be watching whilst drinking my hot chocolate especially after a horribly wet and chilly bank holiday Monday <yikes>
Edited by Mobson, Aug 26 2014, 12:33 AM.
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rumbaba
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Saw it last night. It was a bit ill-tempered and Salmond probably 'won' in some sense but it won't change anybody's mind. The best discussions I have heard are the ones that exclude the politicians.
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caissier
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Salmond shouted louder and blanketed out AD a lot of the time, if that can be called winning.
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rumbaba
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These debates are a sideshow and don't address the real issues. Ironically, the biggest asset for the 'Yes' campaign has been the 'No' campaign which has been appallingly mishandled. Scottish voters feel themselves disenfranchised and have become increasingly frustrated by a Labour party that takes them for granted while it pursues middle England. Alistair Darling thought that by lining up all the major parties in Westminster in a row to say 'No' was all he had to do and then behaved like a cross school teacher when the all children didn't want to do as they had been told. It was an incredibly patronising campaign that has back-fired. Now a lot of Scots are thinking 'Westminster is united against us, well, sod them. The reason the SNP actually have an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament is because the Labour party has treated it with contempt. apart from Donald Dewar, no Labour 'big hitter' has ever been interested in the assembly.

I think the vote will go no, probably 60/40 of the votes cast and, at this point in time, it's probably for the best. However, one part of me would like to see a rocket put under UK politics, just to shake it up and see what happens. The supreme irony will be if the Scots vote no and are then are taken out of the EU by a load of English voters in an EU referendum.
Edited by rumbaba, Aug 28 2014, 09:49 PM.
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Caro

That's a great summary, rumbaba. Do I have your permission to put it on another board discussing this - they are made up mostly of Englishmen, so a more balanced and knowledgeable piece to counteract that would be good.

Cheers, Caro.
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rumbaba
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Of course Caro, feel free <ok>
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rumbaba
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Interesting debate last night, streamed live on STV player. Polite and civilised, unlike the Darling /Salmond spats. The polls think there is a last minute narrowing and a real risk of a Yes victory. Interesting that, after banging on about Alex Salmond's lack of a 'Plan B' , the Westminster Government have only just started to think about what they might do in the event of a Yes vote - no contingency in place whatever. If it does go 'Yes' it will be interesting to see the UK government's committment to democracy and fair play tested, given that Cameron pretty much arm-twisted Salmond into calling the referendum and forced a straight Yes/No on the ballot paper. It would be shameful if the Scots were to be punished and bullied for exercising their democratic right in a legal, government approved referendum.
Edited by rumbaba, Sep 3 2014, 10:50 AM.
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Mobson
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R4's Dead Ringers Ep 5 last week decided to start with a parody of the Salmond vs Darling debates... followed by Andy Murray's Ice bucket challenge... http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04fc70f
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rumbaba
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The problem for Scottish voters is that nobody is happy with the status quo, that's why the No campaign had to be based on fear of something worse, there is no positive case to be made for it. There is a general dissatisfaction with the current government and no confidence that, even if a Labout govt was elected, which doesn't see very likely, there will not be much change in policy, except for some minor tinkering around the edges. The response of the Scottish voters so far has been to give the SNP an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament, a bloody nose for Labour, who have pretty much ignored Scotland. The question now is whether the general dissatisfaction will reach a level where people will think, 'what the hell, let's push the button'.
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rumbaba
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The momentum is with the Yes campaign now. I now believe it could go Yes. Everybody panicking and the English media eventually putting this on the front page - too late guys, where have you been?
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Rikiiboy
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I caught this speech earlier from Johann Lamont,what a wonderful speaker she is,her fiesty delivery of it was quite stirring too.



http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/blog/entry/scotlands-future-johann-lamont-speech
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Mobson
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Oh god! 'The big feartie from Fife' has got into the act now...

Former prime minister Gordon Brown has set out a timetable for boosting the Scottish Parliament's powers if voters reject independence.

vid link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29115556
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dai Cottomy
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The Scottish government's policy of free tuition for Scottish students could be threatened if the country votes for independence next week. Free tuition is currently granted to residents of other EU countries, but English, Welsh and Northern Irish students in Scotland pay up to £9,000 a year. If Scotland were an independent member of the European Union, it could be forced to allow all UK students to study without paying fees. EU regulations stress that countries cannot discriminate among residents from other EU states.

So some good could come out of a yes vote - but perhaps not for Mr. Salmond
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Mobson
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Mobson
Sep 18 2013, 10:11 AM
Let's start with a joke, of sorts, from Kevin Bridges at last month's Live at the Edinburgh Comedy Fest...."Are we getting excited about that in Scotland? Independence - the Referendum - we're letting 16 year olds vote, that'll secure a record number of spoilt ballot papers..."Nicola Sturgeon loves the bobby" (Scottish slang for the penis)...loads of laughter from audience...

....and (almost) finish with a joke or two from this favourite stand-up Scottish comedian...and guests

Kevin Bridges: Live at the Referendum - broadcast from Glasgow's Theatre Royal on 6th September. Where Kevin invites comedians Hal Cruttenden, Jack Dee, Kerry Godliman and Frankie Boyle to give their views on the Scottish independence referendum....funny about learning to speak a foreign language...Scottish...also never seen Jack Dee play a musical instrument let alone sing but he does here...and controversial Frankie Boyle is rare performer on tv these days...but he's booted and suited for this review, talking Scottish politics...

Next on...Next Tuesday 23:20 BBC ONE EXCEPT NORTHERN IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND HD, SCOTLAND, SCOTLAND HD

details, links etc http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04h8kvx

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b04h8kvx/kevin-bridges-live-at-the-referendum
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waiting4atickle
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Alex Salmond reveals his defence plans for an independent Scotland

Posted Image

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Rikiiboy
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6vDzf-wSbk
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caissier
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Some things are just too important to be decided in this way. It's too complicated and, in modern times, the effects too hard to predict or comprehend. It's not 1603 or whenever the Union took place. Some of the metaphors being used are ridiculous. Opinion can be created, guided and manipulated, which is probably why the powers that be use them. Cameron probably thought there was no danger that Scottish residents would vote for such a dramatic change. It's completely in line with his impulsive nature that he went with it.

It's crazy, also, that membership of the EU might be decided in this way. A two-thirds majority would be a bit better. What's the difference between a referendum and a plebiscite? Both seem employed to democratically rubber-stamp something already wangled ..... usually anyway.
Edited by caissier, Sep 13 2014, 11:54 AM.
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dai Cottomy
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A fifty-fifty plus one result which is the declared method of determining a yes or no verdict can only lead to a divided country. Surely a two thirds majority should have been insisted upon.
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rumbaba
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A bit late now Dai but you have a point
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Rikiiboy
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Alex Salmond,would YOU buy a used car off this man?
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rumbaba
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He isn't selling cars, neither is Cameron or Miliband - what's your point?
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Caro

We've been wondering why a larger majority wasn't required for that very reason, Dai. From a distance, though, we are rather hoping for a Yes vote, just for the interest of seeing what happens next! (And because we live in a small area away from the seat of power, too, and feel neglected by the government too, and my son lived in Sheffield, ditto.)
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caissier
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The world and humanity is faced by economic, environmental and political crises, such as this .........

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/no-rain-for-decades-stand-by-for-the-megadroughts-scientists-warn-9732483.html

....... and we are preoccupied and distracted by Alex Salmond's fragmentational and obsessional vanity nationalist project.
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Mobson
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dai Cottomy
Sep 13 2014, 02:37 PM
A fifty-fifty plus one result which is the declared method of determining a yes or no verdict can only lead to a divided country. Surely a two thirds majority should have been insisted upon.
I did not know this was fact...well I haven't 'been preoccupied or distracted' by what's going on north of the border and therefore haven't read anything specific about the details of the vote or considered the implications until yesterday when I eyed this little piece in her 'Up Front' column in the Observer magazine....and thought it worth posting as the thoughts of a (female) octogenarian with strong Scottish roots living in England...

'Katherine Whitehorn makes a plea to Scots' ...

It's a sad thought that if the vote goes the wrong way, by this time next week I shall be an alien, or on the way to being one. I may live in England but three of my four grandparents were Scottish; I went to school in Glasgow, among other places; I am also, I'm told, the great-grandaughter of the last person to be tried for heresy by the Church of Scotland (He wasn't much of a heretic; he'd just, as a scholar, become interested by the way texts in Latin and Hebrew had come together to form the Bible: heresy to the true believers, who were certain God had dictated every comma.) I was rector of St. Andrews University and never felt I was in a foreign country - plenty of English students, including the future king and his bride, were only too delighted to learn what Scotland had to offer.

I don't suppose I need to worry that we'll start going to war with each other again, which is what I fear if the EU breaks up. But the attempt to work out which bits of British culture are Scottish and which English would be tiresome, as would the trouble of deciding which bits of British institutions, like the BBC and the NHS, would continue to operate in Scotland.

Scotland needn't be on its own to assert its character and priorities; it already has Scottish law, Scottish bank notes and a huge place in the consciousness of the whole island, so please, Scots in Scotland, help the rest of us stay together."


Katharine Whitehorn, born 1928, was the first journalist to write a column about her personal and domestic life and draw broader truths from her experiences. Known for her wit and humour and a keen observer of the changing role of women, she came to journalism through a circuitous route that took in Picture Post, Woman's Own and The Spectator, but it was on the Observer - where she has worked for more than 30 years - that she really made her mark. She served as the Rector of the University of St Andrews from 1982 to 1985 and was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) in the 2014 New Year Honours for services to journalism, after turning an OBE down half a century ago because it was not for journalism...favourite quotes of hers..."Find out what you like doing best and get someone to pay you for it"..."The rule is not to talk about money with people who have much more or much less than you."..."The disease is painless; it's the cure that hurts"...
Edited by Mobson, Sep 15 2014, 11:55 AM.
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rumbaba
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The 'shy nos' will probably swing it. A lot of people who are inclined to vote 'no' don't want to shout about it, not necessarily because they face any real intimidation but because they feel like party poopers, guided by fear in the midst of unbridled optimism and hope for a better future, it's not a comfortable place to be if you are not inclined to defend the status quo but are scared of the unknown.

However, the 'no' campaign just get it wrong again and again, they truly do not understand their audience. It's ironic that the very people the press have laid into as being useless and untrustworthy in recent years are now been wheeled out as the 'voice of reason' that should be listened to; Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, George Galloway, bankers. The best thing the no campaign can do now is to stop machine-gunning themselves in the foot by wheeling out irrelevant celebrities to plead with or lecture to the Scottish people, it just annoys them and is more likely to make a few vote 'yes' as a result.
Edited by rumbaba, Sep 15 2014, 11:26 AM.
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rumbaba
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rumbaba
Sep 14 2014, 06:52 PM
He isn't selling cars, neither is Cameron or Miliband - what's your point?
Sorry Rikii, that was a bit brusque, not really how I intended it to come out.

The whole process is awash with shifty politicians of every hue and Alex Salmond is no different but this is not about Alex Salmond or the SNP. I know a lot of people who are not SNP or Salmond supporters but they want self-determination. 'If it's a mess, it will be our mess, we'll be responsible and we'll clean it up' is their attitude. They are just sick of being ruled by a London-centric Westminster that, at best, ignores them and, at worst, gives them a kicking. I don't share their belief that this is the solution but I share their frustration and, in some cases, desperation.
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Rikiiboy
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Hello Rumbaba,to the rest of us all sitting on the fence down here,it does appear to be AS doing all the shouting.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100286364/scotland-divided-its-been-divided-for-centuries/
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rumbaba
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The UK media have been ridiculous. They more or less ignored this huge event until a couple of weeks ago, now you get stuff like this, which is wildly skewed, inaccurate journalism. I am not in favour of independence but the reporting by the mainstream papers, apart from The Guardian, has been hysterical propaganda for the no campaign, which is bad for democracy
Edited by rumbaba, Sep 15 2014, 07:52 PM.
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rumbaba
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Ok, game on. I predict 55 45 in favour of No.
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waiting4atickle
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I hope you're right, rum, but I'm not so sure. The signs are that a lot of people who don't normally bother to vote are going to turn out for this referendum. It's not clear to me why they would bother this time unless it's to vote Yes.

There seems to have been quite a lot of mention of postal voting. I don't know if that means there have been more postal votes cast than usual, but I have been wondering recently what happens in the case that someone submits a postal vote and then dies before the day of the election: do they check every postal vote to make sure that the person who submitted it is still alive?

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caissier
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Interesting article by Anthony Hilton who is quite sensible IMO ....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/anthony-hilton-what-a-yes-vote-would-really-mean-in-the-longer-term-9739756.html

...... pointing out that AS was elected on an approx. 50% turnout and there's an election in 2016, so there's a possibility the negotiations on any split-up might be conducted by the Scottish Labour Party and an English Labour Party government in London.

Edited by caissier, Sep 18 2014, 04:11 AM.
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rumbaba
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D Day - good luck Scotland <ok>
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Mobson
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Yes....and Good Luck England england erm
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waiting4atickle
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caissier
Sep 18 2014, 04:05 AM
Interesting article by Anthony Hilton who is quite sensible IMO ....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/anthony-hilton-what-a-yes-vote-would-really-mean-in-the-longer-term-9739756.html

...... pointing out that AS was elected on an approx. 50% turnout and there's an election in 2016, so there's a possibility the negotiations on any split-up might be conducted by the Scottish Labour Party and an English Labour Party government in London.


He also claims "The UK government has the power to demand a second referendum – one which also gives the vote to the Scots who are living in England." Really?

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Mobson
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<cool> Who is footing the bill for this referendum?....
Edited by Mobson, Sep 18 2014, 09:00 AM.
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waiting4atickle
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Isn't it Jock's round?

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caissier
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Clamp-down seemingly going on at POV ..... scared of Project Fear maybe.
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rumbaba
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BBC policy on voting day, to stay out of it. Probably fair enough
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Mobson
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parodyFacebook status of Scotland going from ‘married’ to ‘it’s complicated’ goes viral ....as Norway amongst others asks R U Single now?....Ireland asks U OK HUN? ...and Wales says 'Guys we're still here...'

http://twitter.com/JamieDMJ/status/512201262780416000/photo/1
Edited by Mobson, Sep 18 2014, 02:35 PM.
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rumbaba
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Alea iacta est

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rumbaba
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Yougov predicting 54 46 no victory, following the close of polls. I was way ahead of these guys
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waiting4atickle
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rumbaba
Sep 18 2014, 09:22 PM
Alea iacta est


Is that Scottish, rum?

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rumbaba
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Aye, it means 'the Mars Bar is in the fryer'
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Mobson
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Ah Celtic Cuisine
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Mobson
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Scotland has voted No! According to the BBC forecast at 5.15am...Yes 46% No 54% 26/32 declared
Edited by Mobson, Sep 19 2014, 04:19 AM.
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Mobson
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Scotland's first city Glasgow voted yes earlier, but the second city Edinburgh has just announced its voted No and Argyll & Bute says No..Fife and the Highland vote still to come.

Yes 44.60% No 55.40% at 6am...
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Mobson
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Fife have voted...No. And this result takes the No vote over the line..

Yes (1,539,920) 45% ....No (1,914,187) 55 % ...31/32 declared..86% turnout...@ 6.15am
Edited by Mobson, Sep 19 2014, 05:20 AM.
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Mobson
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6.20am Alex Salmond admits defeat in this Referendum
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rumbaba
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Oops repeated
Edited by rumbaba, Sep 19 2014, 02:17 PM.
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rumbaba
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55 45, no, you heard it here first :)
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Mobson
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Alastair Darling has responded for the No campaign....David Cameron will speak at 7am. It's clear, because of the high percentage that did vote yes, that all parties will need to address and commit to those late promises of change given to Scotland late in the campaign regarding devolution...which will pose the question who will speak for England now!
Edited by Mobson, Sep 19 2014, 06:01 AM.
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Rikiiboy
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THANK YOU SCOTLAND.
(I am 65 this year and my falling pension with Scottish Widows is on the rise again,phew!)
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rumbaba
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Good new Rikii, you want to get that before England takes us all out of the EU and it nosedives again
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rumbaba
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rumbaba
Sep 17 2014, 10:33 PM
Ok, game on. I predict 55 45 in favour of No.
I thought I would explain my methodology, in case anybody thought I just made a random guess at 55 45 no. It wasn't wildly scientific but this was my reasoning.

The polls have all been a bit misleading because they eliminate the 'don't knows' and the headlines have been along the lines of 52 48 No and so on, which doesn't give the whole story. I investigated a little bit more (very little) and found that the latest poll actually had 48 no, 44 yes 8 undeclared. I figured, at this stage of the game, there would be very few actual 'don't knows' and the majority of the undeclared votes were actually 'shy nos' . So, I reworked the figures on the assumption that 'a wee bit' would vote yes (1%) and the rest would vote no. Also, contrary to some pollsters, like IPSOS, I believed a high turnout would be more likely to confirm the poll stats than render them invalid, the declared yeses and nos would vote in the proportions polled, a lower turnout might have skewed the result. So, the calculation went 48 + 7 = 55 no, 44 + 1 = 45 yes.

Unfortunately, apart form a tenner with someone on facebook, I didn't have any money on it but I am satisfied with the result. It was a victory for democracy, 85% turnout with a 10% margin on a simple majority of people living in Scotland. We have to move on now, avoid an anti-Scots backlash form the media that will only help UKIP.
Edited by rumbaba, Sep 19 2014, 02:05 PM.
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caissier
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Nate Silver nothing .......
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rumbaba
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<laugh> not really Caiss, it was a one-off and I got lucky.

I made an assumption that non-voting would be spread equally and could be discounted as a significant factor and 'a wee bit' was a hunch.

I would be interested to see the demographic split between age groups but that's not really possible with our secret ballot. How did the newly enfranchised 16 and 17 year olds vote? Did the over 50s predominantly vote no (with an eye to their pensions and value of their houses), while the younger generation were more optimistic and forward looking maybe?
Edited by rumbaba, Sep 19 2014, 02:33 PM.
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Douglas
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rumbaba
Sep 19 2014, 12:24 PM
rumbaba
Sep 17 2014, 10:33 PM
Ok, game on. I predict 55 45 in favour of No.
I thought I would explain my methodology, in case anybody thought I just made a random guess at 55 45 no. It wasn't wildly scientific but this was my reasoning.

The polls have all been a bit misleading because they eliminate the 'don't knows' and the headlines have been along the lines of 52 48 No and so on, which doesn't give the whole story. I investigated a little bit more (very little) and found that the latest poll actually had 48 no, 44 yes 8 undeclared. I figured, at this stage of the game, there would be very few actual 'don't knows' and the majority of the undeclared votes were actually 'shy nos' . ...
Good reasoning, Rum, and happily accurate.

I had not tried to put figures on it but been hoping that the majority of "Don't knows" were either "Noes" who were keeping their heads down or else, when it came to polling day, would follow Hilaire Belloc's advice
'And always keep a-hold of Nurse
For fear of finding something worse'

even if they were unaware of the quotation.
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