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Peak Bakken 2015; Energy
Topic Started: Jan 1 2013, 06:53 AM (143 Views)
HandFarming
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Interesting comments on the latest IEA (International Energy Agency) report. Note, the US presently uses 20 Million gallons a day and they expect the US to EXPORT (?) 2 million barrels a day starting 2015??

Question on everyone's mind-At WHAT Price do they expect Half the fuel usage from Americans?? Even the 2008 price shock didn't get half the people to stop using fuel like it was water...Oh wait...Water costs $5 a gallon if you buy the bottles.

http://www.energyvanguard.com/blog-building-science-HERS-BPI/bid/56391/Why-the-IEA-s-2012-World-Energy-Outlook-Could-Be-Wrong

Another interesting tidbit on those graphs-they seem to think the Bakken field will peak sooner than any other field ever has because they are pumping it out 8 times faster (great new technology at work). And, of interest, natural gas isn't increasing in production during this time, even though they drilled 15 times more wells.

What am I missing here?
You can lead an ass to knowledge, but you can not make it think.
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Mommacat
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You're mising the "Bozo factor"....simply put - most Americans are too stupid to try to run the numbers, so they rely on the information the 'clowns' in the White House feed them. In my opinion, any prophecy on future oil/water/food/population, etc. is about as accurate as a crystal ball. But, NUMBERS just SOUND so impressive!!!
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HandFarming
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I think NetFlix has "Crude Awakening" and it describes the basics of Peak Oil. Hubbard predicted the US would peak in the '70s and the bell curve has been constant ever since.

They will eventually do the shale oil, which takes a lot of energy to get oil out of because they have to blast the shale, truck and crush it, heat it with steam (Alberta tar sands built a nuclear reactor for that), then refine the oil/water mix. The energy they put into drilling and pumping is a fraction of energy so the tar sands oil costs more to manufacture. No doubt, we will see $25/gallon by then.
You can lead an ass to knowledge, but you can not make it think.
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HandFarming
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Yeah!! Gas is down!!

Which either means the dollar is up and that will slow the economy down as higher priced goods won't get exported.

They thought it was all great when they pegged the dollar to oil in the 70s and now, on the down-slide it looks like a juggling act. Either way-gas price up (means the dollar is down) and it will slow the economy. Dollar goes up, gas prices down, means less exports and jobs.

I have to agree with all the worst economists on this one- if they peg the dollar to gold, it will be a downward spiral they can't control. And, yes, if it happens, they will all start to confiscate gold worldwide.
If they peg the dollar to food, the odds are all countries will ramp up production and feed China, which will offset all the debt everyone owes them. Trouble is, only 3rd world countries know how to grow food without fossil fuels, which leaves us out in the cold.

Either way, it's going to get interesting.
You can lead an ass to knowledge, but you can not make it think.
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Mommacat
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Ummmm...."interesting" isn't necessarily the word I would have choosen! :) Scary is! However, I do remember the gas wars and .22 a gallon gas in the mid-70's. As for 3rd world countries being the only ones who know how to grow food without oil, I am not so convinced of that - if they did, how come the majority of our food produced goes to them? Just sayin'..... I know its a very complex issue and one that I am not well versed in....but, I do think the world's economy IS, and will remain, based on oil prices. We make pathetic little attempts to lessen our reliance on oil, but very often, even those have some reliance on some component from oil. So, yeah, scary is MY word! :)
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HandFarming
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interesting graph on WHEN the Energy Decline begins-

Posted Image
read the whole article here:http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-01-03/what-future-for-petroleum

I was reading a National Geographic article on how "great a find" the Bakkens in North Dakota are and that its peak production will be 200 Million Barrels a year. Sounds awesome huh? Well the US uses 71.67 TRILLION barrels a year. The Bakkens are a drop in the bucket ... and shouldn't theyt be preserving that oil for later?

So by looking at the graph n gas prices...I'd have to say they got it right...
Edited by HandFarming, May 30 2013, 07:15 AM.
You can lead an ass to knowledge, but you can not make it think.
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HandFarming
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and, herte's is the Reality Bites graph:
Posted Image
On this graph, he used the energy value of the LNG, which is expected to replace oil.
Note that all the Alternatives together- Ethanol, Biofuels, solar and wind presently only make up less than 1.5% of all the energy consumed. :(
You can lead an ass to knowledge, but you can not make it think.
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Raven
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Most of the oil in North Dakota is shipped elsewhere so it really doesn't count as a boon for the average American (unless you count the politicians and the oil barons).
The truth is not for all men, but only for those that seek it. Ayn Rand
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