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| Forcast: Big quake likely for California | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Apr 15 2008, 12:17 AM (128 Views) | |
| Mystical | Apr 15 2008, 12:17 AM Post #1 |
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Forecast: Big quake likely in California Scientists predict almost certain risk of strong earthquake by 2037 updated 4:09 p.m. ET, Mon., April. 14, 2008 LOS ANGELES - California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast. New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent. The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage. "It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report. California is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt. The analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare. For example, a 2003 report found the San Francisco Bay Area faced a 62 percent chance of being struck by a magnitude 6.7 quake by 2032. The new study increased the likelihood slightly to 63 percent by 2037. For the Los Angeles Basin, the probability is higher at 67 percent. There is no past comparison for the Los Angeles area. Interactive Scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say the analysis should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country. Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the severity of ground shaking to an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates. "A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of SCEC headquartered at the University of Southern California, who was part of the research. Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section. The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a recent disaster in geologic time compared to the southernmost segment, which has not popped in more than three centuries. Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino. * I couldn't live in California for this reason. I don't know how those people can sleep at night *http://www.msnbc.com/id/24113287/?GT1=43001 |
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| Mystical | Apr 15 2008, 12:23 AM Post #2 |
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Also found this article. This is really freaky! Undersea quake swarm puzzles the experts Hundreds of tremors emanate from unusual source off Oregon coast updated 3:19 p.m. ET, Sun., April. 13, 2008 GRANTS PASS, Ore. - Scientists listening to underwater microphones have detected an unusual swarm of earthquakes off central Oregon, something that often happens before a volcanic eruption — except there are no volcanoes in the area. Scientists don't know exactly what the earthquakes mean, but they could be the result of molten rock rumbling away from the recognized earthquake faults off Oregon, said Robert Dziak, a geophysicist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Oregon State University. There have been more than 600 quakes over the past 10 days in a basin 150 miles (240 kilometers) southwest of Newport, Ore. The biggest was magnitude 5.4, and two others were more than magnitude 5.0, Oregon State University reported. “In the 17 years we’ve been monitoring the ocean through hydrophone recordings, we’ve never seen a swarm of earthquakes in an area such as this,” Dziak said. The hydrophones are left over from a network the Navy used to listen for submarines during the Cold War. They routinely detect passing ships, earthquakes on the ocean bottom and whales calling to one another. On the hydrophones, the quakes sound like low thunder. Some of the quakes have also been detected by earthquake instruments on land. Scientists hope to send out an OSU research ship to take water samples, looking for evidence that sediment has been stirred up and chemicals that would indicate magma is moving up through the Juan de Fuca Plate, Dziak said. Earthquake swarms have been reported off the Oregon coast before, including an episode that occurred in 2005 along a plate boundary northwest of Astoria. The more recent swarm originates in a different area in the middle of the Juan de Fuca Plate, and the tremors are stronger, Dziak said. Also, the quakes have not followed the typical pattern of a major shock followed by a series of diminishing aftershocks, and few have been strong enough to be felt on shore. “The fact that it’s taking place in the middle of the plate, and not a boundary, is puzzling,” he told The Register-Guard in Eugene. “It’s something worth keeping an eye on.” Earth's crust is made up of plates that rest on molten rock, which are rubbing together. When the molten rock, or magma, erupts through the crust, it creates volcanoes. That can happen in the middle of a plate. When the plates lurch against each other, they create earthquakes along the edges. In this case, the Juan de Fuca Plate is a small piece of crust being crushed between the Pacific Plate and North America, Dziak said. http://www.msnbc.com/id/24096212 |
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8:15 PM Jul 10