| "I just started World War III for you." NATO ground offensive in Yugoslavia | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Jan 4 2014, 10:28 AM (176 Views) | |
Firestorm
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Jan 4 2014, 10:28 AM Post #1 |
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Second Dubs
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23 February 1999- Rambouillet Conference begins, with the goal of deciding how the situation in Kosovo will be handled. Slobodan Milosevic at first doesn't believe that western powers will actually bother to intervene in what he sees as a purely internal Yugoslav affair, regardless of what's said at the Conference. Least of all the Americans, who have already been humiliated by their continued inability to set up friendly regimes in Somalia and Iraq. [Major POD] Then he learns about "Essentials of Post–Cold War Deterrence", a 1995 document which encourages US leaders to behave in an "irrational and vindictive" manner when their interests or authority appears threatened. With this in mind, Milosevic redoubles his country's efforts to prepare for confrontation with the West. 18 March 1999- The Rambouillet Conference ends in failure, with the Serbian and Russian delegations absolutely unwilling to accept NATO administration on an autonomous Kosovo nor unhindered transport of NATO forces through Yugoslav territory and immunity for said forces from Yugoslav law. As a principal Casus Belli, the "Rambouillet Accords" will later receive criticism for being provocative in a manner not unlike the July Ultimatum once offered to Serbia in the summer of 1914. (OTL note: Rambouillet Accords really were unreasonable; Henry Kissenger called it a "terrible diplomatic document" and Noam Chomsky called it a "take-it-or-be-bombed ultimatum". If you want to PREVENT the War in Kosovo, this too would be a good POD.) 24 March 1999- NATO air war begins. Operations go well at first despite more resistance than expected. Figuring that their infrastructure would come under attack, the Serbians had been stockpiling essential supplies for the past few months. The national media in particular has mobilized and dispersed itself to make air attacks more difficult, though high-powered transmissions in a war zone are still risky. Milosevic begins screaming about western imperialism and works to energize anti-war sentiment in the attacking countries. He bolsters his relationship with Russia and China while also making more or better friends in Africa, the Middle East and South America. Though no match for the western propaganda machines, he will make the war against him a much tougher sell. 27 March 1999- An F-117 Nighthawk is shot down, the first confirmed kill of a stealth fighter. A second Nighthawk is damaged a few nights later, and a third shot down shortly thereafter. This brings a great deal of worry to NATO commanders. June 2, 1999 NATO commanders and politicians begin discussing the possibility of a ground war. The British and Americans are the most supportive of such an action, while the Germans and French are most opposed. While the Yugoslav military and the infrastructure that support it seem very much in ruins, there is no sign that Milosevic will back down, especially with Yeltson staying firm in his support for the Serbs (unbeknownst to even him, his Defense Ministry has made plans to send several airborne battalions as part of an independent "peacekeeping" force). With no resolution in sight, all parties reluctantly agree that an invasion of Kosovo, and perhaps Serbia itself, may be necessary. Hungary reluctantly allows other NATO forces to station troops there for a possible attack into northern Serbia. June 10, 1999 78 days since the beginning of hostilities and NATO air command has lost 12 aircraft, plus dozens of UAVs. The 50,000-strong Kosovo Force (KFOR) begins advancing over the Albanian and Macedonian border. Their leading vanguard, predominately-British and US Marine, initially has a great deal of trouble in the mountainous border area, as roads are few and Serb forces are far stronger than they would have expected. However, the enemy shows little willingness to stand around in the face of superior firepower and they make their way out of the mountains within a couple of days. The move to the provincial capitol in Pristina takes only two more days. In this period, NATO suffers a total of 64 killed, 131 wounded and 5 taken prisoner, compared to 1,494 Serbian dead, 2,458 wounded and 7,201 captured (plus 3,884 KLA dead, including quite a few English and German speaking "volunteers" who tend to take leadership and specialist positions within their units). Three main battle tanks and seven other heavy combat vehicles were destroyed, much to the consternation of the planners. On the narrow rural roads, it fast became apparent that their heavy machines would be frighteningly vulnerable to large bombs. That's one of the few advantages the Yugoslav Army has in the flat interior of Kosovo, and it seems that most of them have been wise enough to leave. June 14, 1999 Arriving at the Pristina International Airport, a contingent of 500 British and French soldiers comes across a force of 200 Russian paratroopers holding it. NATO commander Wesley Clark orders them to push the Russians aside, and the British second-in-command doesn't think to second guess the order. Their first-in-command, Captain James Hillier Blount, eventually better known as singer-songwriter James Blunt, was back in Macedonia nursing a sprained ankle. (OTL note: Yes, the guy who sang "You're Beautiful" really was under the command of the guy who wanted to be US president, he really was ordered to take the Airport from the Russians, and he really may have prevented World War III by refusing to do so. He asked his British commander [General Mike Jackson] whether or not he should, and the order was quickly countermanded. Clark wanted them both court martialed, but approval of their decision went all the way up to the Prime Minister's office so the whole thing was swept under the rug.) It was a quick action in which NATO forces had the advantage in equipment, numbers and mortar and light armour support. The Russians had not had the opportunity nor inclination to dig in or fortify their positions, as 10 British and 17 French soldiers died and 47 were wounded, many from friendly mortar fire. Whereas the Russians lost 48 dead, 74 wounded and the rest captured. June 15, 1999 There are several other Russian units operating in Northern Kosovo and encounters between them and Western forces very often results in gunfire. Wesley Clark is all in favor of driving them completely out of the Balkans, but he will very soon be finding himself without a job. NATO forces are ordered to halt until the situation with Russia can be resolved. The Pristina Airport Incident stuns the international community, with fears of a wider NATO-CIS confrontation and Greece and Hungary threatening to pull out of the coalition entirely. Some 10,000 Russian troops are moved to Serbia via Bulgaria before that country is convinced to close its airspace. Eventually, the Russians are put under economic pressure to discontinue their support, and Yeltson agrees to deploy peacekeepers throughout Kosovo under NATO supervision but not command. Everyone knows that this changes nothing, and well-trained, well-armed, Russian speaking Yugoslavians will be a common enemy throughout the rest of the war. But it averts a world war, thereby making everyone happy. (this is going to be my best case outcome for a "Shootout at Pristina" scenario. I may do another one in the future where diplomacy fails and we really do see another big war fought over some fool thing in the Balkans.) Serbian forces in Kosovo use the confusion as an opportunity to make their move. NATO troops and installations come under attack throughout the province, with a few raids into supposedly safe areas in Albania as well. The physical toll inflicted by these attacks are not particularly great, but the psychological toll brings to mind similar happenings in the Vietnamese Tet Offensive. It turns out that NATO was very wrong in their assumption that enemy forces had been crushed in the initial assault or retreated without resistance (though the Yugos had done well to cultivate those assumptions; using bottom-of-the-barrel units to make last stands against them while convoys of empty trucks went running back to Belgrade). Most of the better units had gone to ground in the more sparsely- or sympathetically-populated areas, waiting for the more-or-less unbeatable armoured spearpoint to pass them over before hitting at its more vulnerable support network. In hindsight, the timing for these raids may not have not have been the best. Western politicians claim that the Yugoslav forces are clearly operating out of Serbia proper (which is occasionally true) and would not be able to repeat their actions if a regime change was affected in Belgrade. This gives more justification for the war on Yugoslavia and the attack in the north which had already been planned. 17 June, 1999 Another 50,000 strong force, consisting mostly of American, Canadian, French and German tank units, advances into Northern Serbia. This is combined with a significant airborne force of British, French, Dutch, Hungarian, Polish, Spanish and Italian troops dropping into strategically important areas, making it very difficult for the enemy to support their forward units. The conventional action lasts all of 14 days and is in many ways an upscaled version of what happened in Kosovo. Yugoslavian troops fight hard but fall quickly, NATO troops are pleased by their advances but dismayed by their losses. Of note is how the Yugoslav Air Force, far more intact than expected, throws itself at the attacking forces; they cause a good bit of damage but at the cost of their complete annihilation. Total NATO losses amount to 1,120 dead and 3,520 wounded. Yugoslavian forces suffer 2,576 dead, 7,212 wounded and 14,683 captured (add that up with Kosovo losses and it's over a third of their pre-war army). 8 July, 1999 A combined force of French GIGN and Danish Jægerkorpset manage to capture Slobodan Milosevic and several other high-ranking government officials near his summer villa. Several days later, Wesley Clark and Bill Clinton issue a joint statement that the War in Kosovo is over and the mission of KFOR has been accomplished. Wesley Clark also announces that he will be stepping down as commander of Allied Forces in Europe, citing unspecified health issues, and that General Joseph Ralston would be taking his place. Ralston will later be seen as a step down from Clark in terms of dedication and strategic competence, and often accused of corruption, but he gets along better with his chain of command and with those of allied powers, and is generally seen as a more level-headed leader than Clark. For his part, Milosevic scoffs at the idea of the war being over. He claims that there are upwards to 1.2 million members in the Yugoslavian Resistance whom the invaders will have the kill before they can feel safe in their occupied territory. While that figure is considered wildly inaccurate, it does make some participants wonder just how many Serbs will die before they can consider their mission of preventing ethnic cleansing a success. |
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10:28 AM Jul 11