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WI: All of North America under US rule by 1861?
Topic Started: May 8 2011, 12:28 PM (267 Views)
Photovoltaic ArrayPosted Image
Second Dubs
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Admittedly, this was inspired by the VIP mod for Victoria in which a potentially more epic American Civil War could happen due to the US, playing its cards right, grabs a lot more territory than it had OTL and lets more states enter the union than what we had OTL as well.

How would the demographics play out? How much of Mexico could or would become slave states? (It's probably obvious that Canadian-carved states become free while the Caribbean areas goes slave, presuming any states could potentially be carved out from them in time. But enough strange things happened OTL.) I'm also interested on the effects it will have on the Civil War when and if it does happen. Would it stay two sides or would other areas decide to try to become independent along with the CSA? I know at least the Pacific northwest considered secession but patriotism and fear of the Union government kept them quiet. Maybe they would feel braver in this scenario.

This is presuming a Civil War happens anyway... but I believe it was inevitable. I doubt the liberal-democratic-minded Anglo-Saxon peoples of North America would be willing to do funded, gradual emancipation and just freeing them anyway would obviously lead to rebellions in the south.
Edited by Photovoltaic Array, May 8 2011, 03:08 PM.
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Assuming you just want a big ACW and ignoring the historical evidence showing how the north in OTL did funded, gradual emancipation and virginia came close to doing so early in the 1830s.

Slave states from mexico? The empty northern and southern third portions of mexico would make decent slave states.

The Aztec core of Mexico wouldn't have slavery or be that secessionist minded. They wouldn't love the union much so expect draft riots in Mexico City, Tuxpan and other large cities in southern mexico. After the ACW, they likely import alot of jim crow-style fail minus the hard and fast racial divisions. Think more property qualifications.

The north and far south of mexico which would be more dixie influenced likely import jim crow in toto but in practice turn out like louisiana or parts of southern texas.

Central America would import jim crow for indians but again look more like louisiana than missisipi in terms of strictness of enfrocement.

Cuba and Puerto Rico would all be like the above.

The british caribbean(am assuming for the purposes of the scenario that we get them when we do rupertsland in the 1830s/40s) and Haiti would be sort of free enclaves like Liberia but US territory.

We get the DR in 1868 and it's another freedmen's enclave.

The Phillippines? After the ACW we likely import people from there and the mexican states as cheap, terribly paid labor. Remember, one of the big obstacles to dixie's modernization was lack of people to work in their factories due to nobody wanting to move there.

The civil war itself? It's like our civil war only... bigger. Even lasts the same amount of time roughly.
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One thing is for sure, with the fact that new england/the new england settled areas(washington, oregon, iowa, michigan, wisconsin, minnesota) being clearly outnumbered by areas... sympathetic to segregationists(border states, the southwest, parts of the plains) or having segregationist policy(dixie, border states, the mexican states, the central american states, the carib states), TTL's civil rights moement would probably not get as far as ours did even pre-1960
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Interesting. How do you think things would play out for blacks and latins?
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Photovoltaic Array
Jun 9 2011, 01:22 PM
Interesting. How do you think things would play out for blacks and latins?
Paler latins likely assimilate when the irish do, which is early in the 20th century.

The darker more indio/african looking ones? My guess is the 1970s like Italians or slavs.

Blacks? Outside of Liberia, the ex-british caribbean territories, Haiti and whatever african territories we grab(Angola, Cape Verde) it'd probably still suck to be black even in 2011. OTOH, One partially mitigating factor is that in the latin territories/states, blacks who make money could marry a latin and in effect assimilate into latindom.

Also factor in latin/filipino labor recruitment to the north which prevents the great migration.

So let's play it out. The Talented tenth -- the portion of the black community that are the natural leaders, businessmen and advocates do reasonably well and assimilate into latindom while most of the rest remains stuck down in dixie and being screwed over. :/
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I'm... slightly more optimistic than you are. Slightly. I would hope that large areas of black freedmen (the Caribbean) and perhaps another huge racial minority bloc would help drive things into a better balance and perhaps make less of a victim definition and bad paternalistic feeling for all parties involved. But it's all too easy to see a bad scenario happening here as well.
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Consider the negative impacts that having the safety valve of the black territories for emigration, plus the possibility of assimilating into latindom would do to the civil rights movement.

After all, the incentive risk one's life to stand up to challenge jim crow becomes much less if there's easy ways out.
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Indeed. One would hope that there is enough for things for blacks to work out in general if you're going to butterfly away the Civil Rights movement. I don't know how prosperous the Caribbean is in this century but it could be interesting to see it become the defacto black area of a greater USA with the southern half of Mexico downwards becoming the latin area. If you have many blacks assimilate into Latindom it could be interesting to see how a distinct southern half of the continent evolves from a northern, more whitebread half in the coming centuries.
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Overall we'd see a hybrid anglo-latin state in the US by now. However by now the balance would be tipping more and more to the latin side due to a mix of birthrates plus the cultural... influences of decades past.

The US would still be anglophone, but in many ways would resemble places like Quebec or Italy or Uruguay in terms of culture/norms. The slow digestion of a good portion of the black population, the anglicization of the latin population and the digestion of the filipinos would contribute to a degree of homogenity more like those places.
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Let's factor in your optimism re: blacks for a second. Now here's a bit of a twist. Imagine if instead of an arab spring, 2011 becomes notable for a "Freedom summer" as blacks in Dixie decide to do protests for equal rights* along with protestors from places like Haiti, The Bahamas or Angola demanding statehood.

Let's look first at the possible downsides/things that could hurt the movement. First and most obviously you have there being less of a leadership class as a good chunk have chosen assimilation into greater latindom or moving. Essentially many of the people who would have kicked off the movement in OTL serving as colonial administrators or missionary in the tropics.

There are some upsides that improve the situation compared to the 50s/50s. Firstly, Dixie became clearly white majority as in OTL, even without the sunbelt boom due to latin immigration plus black emigration to africa/haiti/the bahamas so it's whiter than our 2011, much less our 50s/60s. This means less fear of black majority rule. Second, there is the Latin influence on the culture which helps the system of segregation be less brutal than OTL's.

* TTL this means anti-lynching laws, voting rights, civil liberties and an end to various petty harassments(segregation of schools, anti-intermarriage laws). Essentially, this is a world where the *civil rights movement comes as universalism has become stagnant and isn't expanding, instead of being caught up in all the anti-western/'national liberation' movement of the 60s.
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