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WoC vs Bloodletters
Topic Started: Feb 1 2012, 01:30 PM (456 Views)
amadiss
The Chosen
Greetings, I will be playing against Daemons soon.

I did combat simulations in order to decide which is the best mark/equipment to use on warriors of Chaos when facing Bloodletters. I hope some people find it helpful.


  • I consider a 5-model front and supporting attacks from the second rank on each side.
  • The kill-score is the number of kills achieved in average, the point-score is what
    those kills mean in terms of points.
  • Daemons have the special rule of Killing Blow which is accounted for in these numbers.
  • Also, Bloodletters may have hatred if supported by a Herald, that is considered too.
  • Fear is not considered. Or if you like it has been assumed that the corresponding Ld roll was passed.
  • The numbers are the average result of 100,000 combats. The standard deviation on the kill-scores runs from +/- 1.3 to +/- 2 but I decided to take it off the table.
  • The simulation was done with 5-model fronts but if you like to know what happens when a 6-front faces another 6-front, just multiply each element of the table by 6/5. If you have 8-front vs 8-front, multiply by 8/5 instead, and so on...

    If the fronts are not the same, multiply the scores of each side by the corresponding factor and then take the differences. But you need to keep track of who can attack since for instance not every model in a 9-front can make contact with a model from a 5-front.


MoK
MoKWoC Kill-Score
Bloodletters Kill-ScoreWoC Point-ScoreBloodletters Point-ScoreKill-DifferencePoint Difference
Shield4.443.7653.3160.30.68-6.67
Halberd5.554.3766.6570.011.19-3.32
Additional HW5.564.3766.6670.051.18-3.47


MoT:
MoTWoC Kill-Score
Bloodletters Kill-Score
WoC Point-Score
Bloodletters Point-Score
Kill- Difference
Point-Difference
Shield3.342.540.0540.010.83-0.04
Halberd4.163.6549.9258.360.51-8.4
Extra HW4.453.6553.3458.360.8-5.07


MoS:
MoSWoC Kill-Score
Bloodletters Kill-Score
WoC Point-Score
Bloodletters Point-Score
Kill- Difference
Point-Difference
Shield3.333.1340.0150.040.2-10.07
Halberd4.174.3850.0270.06-0.2-20.26
Extra HW4.454.3753.44700.09-16.7


*MoN produces the same table as MoS since reducing the bloodletters WS form 5
to 4 doesn't change what they need to roll in order to hit WoCs. But MoN doesn't even make warriors immune to Fear and it is clearly the worst Mark for this scenario.

In summary:


  • The MoT/Shield gives you the best point exchange. Having MoT will also give you some protection against magic.
  • MoK/Halberd and MoK/extra hw are basically identical (I'd choose Halberd just to avoid handling more dice ;) ). These are the only remaining combinations that give a positive point exchange rate. Remember that MoK makes you Immune to Psychology which is nice since daemons cause Fear. Then again, you loose control
    and may even loose frenzy by loosing combat.
  • In my opinion, although MoS is cheaper, doesn't cause berserker rage, and protects you from fear and panic, it's numbers are just too bad.



Marauders:
MoKMarauders Kill-ScoreBloodletters Kill-ScoreMarauders Point-ScoreBloodletters Point-ScoreKill-DifferencePoint-Diffrence
Shield2.57.429.9637.02-4.9-7.07
GW4.177.450.0537.01-3.2313.04
Naked2.517.4130.0729.63-4.90.44



MoTMarauders Kill-ScoreBloodletters Kill-ScoreMarauders Point-ScoreBloodletters Point-ScoreKill-DifferencePoint-Difference
Shield1.654.9319.8224.64-3.28-4.82
GW2.676.1733.330.87-3.42.42
Naked1.676.1720.0424.68-4.5-4.64



MoSMarauders Kill-ScoreBloodletters Kill-ScoreMarauders Point-ScoreBloodletters Point-ScoreKill-DifferencePoint-Difference
Shield1.666.172030.86-4.5-10.86
GW2.787.4133.3137.05-4.63-3.74
Naked1.677.420.0229.61-5.73-9.59



MoNMarauders Kill-ScoreBloodletters Kill-ScoreMarauders Point-ScoreBloodletters Point-ScoreKill-DifferencePoint-Difference
Shield1.665.2119.9826.04-3.54-6.06
GW2.786.2633.3631.29-3.472.07
Naked1.666.2519.9525.01-4.59-5.06


Marauders Summary:


  • Regardless of the Mark, the best point-difference is achieved with GW (or Flails).
  • Light armor is useless against the S5 attacks so it will just make your models expensive.
  • The best point-difference is obtained with MoK/GW by far. Your marauders are also immune to fear. However, note that by themselves, marauders still loose combat by 3.23 kills. If you don't have something else to win combat then you will loose frenzy and everything goes bad...
  • MoT/GW is the second best choice from a point-exchange perspective. The advantage of this one is that you don't loose the benefit when you loose a combat.
    You still have to deal with fear.
  • MoS has bad numbers.
  • MoN reduces the WS of attacking Bloodletters from 5 to 4 making it equal to that of Marauders. It does protect you a bit. If you have a theme or some special reason to go with Nurgle, then MoN/GW is not bad.


I would like to hear opinions and tactics on what works best against daemons.



Cheers


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matsemann
The Chosen
Brilliant post! I was about to say you really want your marauders hitting these but I see you already got it it coming :)
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cowpow16
Member Avatar
Slave
[ * ]
Solid.

Ill let you know what happened last time I played daemons.

I derped put a hero in the wrong unit the unit he was supposed to be in got pasted by a horde of blood letters.
After that the rest of the warriors and the hellcannon proceeded to turn the daemons into a fine paste.

My unit that got charged was:
18 Warriors
Mot
halberds and shields
fc
flaming banner
(themed list just in case anyone was wondering why mot).

Lost combat by 4 failed my re roll (from bsb) and was run down.

Good table looking forward to marauder table :)
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matsemann
The Chosen
Deamons in general are a good match if we can get the right battles. You don't want your marauders into deamonettes and you really don't want bloodletters hitting your knights. Warriors can go either way as your table shows.

The one big problem I see is Bloodthirster or Great Unclean One. And I really hate Fiends. I struggle to control these with their insane speed and pretty decent attacks. And always remember siren song, that can really mess up your sorcerer lord on disc if you have one :)
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Valdee
Warrior of the Chamber
The best unit vs Bloodletters is Warriors of Tzeentch with Banner of Rage. It is ItP, frenzied (+1A) and still have ward save 6+. IBut even then in combat results are pretty weak:
Lat's look at simulation: Bloodletters, 5 models wide, champion and herald is here; Warriors of Tzeentch with Banner of Rage and halberd (5 models wide):
Bloodletters: 10 attacks, 7.50 hits, 5 wounds, 3.65 kills
Herald: 3 attacks, 2.67 hits, 2.2 wounds, 1.85 kills
3.65 + 1.85 = 5.5 for deamons
Warriors: 20 attacks, 10 hits, 8.33 wounds, 5.56 kills
So it's draw. The side who charged will win. But in next combat phase Deamons will lose re-roll. Warriors still frenzied.

Against Bloodletters which are 5 model wide, I recomennd keep warriors in wider formation (6-7 models), Then we have:
28 attacks, 14 hits, 11.67 wound, 7.78 kills
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Lord Tsunami
Slave
[ * ]
hi!

i love mathhammer, and i have some questions if you do not mind.

first, you say the results are based on 100 000 combats. that suggests you simulated the combats. why bother with that when the maths involved can be calculated exactly using the normal "3/6 hits * 4/6 wounds and so on"-approach? that would yield an exact result based on an infinite number of combat.

Second, you say that the standard deviation varies... that makes me sit up straight. the standard deviation should be calculated for the 100 000 hypotetical combats and is a single number and does not vary. the actual kill score may vary, but the standard deviation is a single number that describes (in a sense) how much most simulations deviate from the average. over 100 000 simulations it should be a small number. much smaller than 2 at least. (afterthought: ah, you meant it varies between the different marks ofc. that is expected, but it should still be much smaller)

third, i of course wanted to double check the maths :D. you accounted for a unit (5 wide) of bloodletters that includes a naked herald, right? :D

EDIT: what is this "point score" that you included in the table?



Keep up the good work :)
/T
Edited by Lord Tsunami, Feb 1 2012, 08:56 PM.
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amadiss
The Chosen
Lord Tsunami
Feb 1 2012, 08:54 PM
hi!

i love mathhammer, and i have some questions if you do not mind.

first, you say the results are based on 100 000 combats. that suggests you simulated the combats. why bother with that when the maths involved can be calculated exactly using the normal "3/6 hits * 4/6 wounds and so on"-approach? that would yield an exact result based on an infinite number of combat.

combats and is a single number and does not vary. the actual kill score may vary, but the standard deviation is a single number that describes (in a sense) how much most simulations deviate from the average. over 100 000 simulations it should be a small number. much smaller than 2 at least. (afterthought: ah, you meant it varies between the different marks ofc. that is expected, but it should still be much smaller)

third, i of course wanted to double check the maths :D. you accounted for a unit (5 wide) of bloodletters that includes a naked herald, right? :D

EDIT: what is this "point score" that you included in the table?



Keep up the good work :)
/T
Hi there. TBH I didn't know the existence of mathhammer so I programmed a simulation using Mathematica (I work with that software all the time). Its true, the same calculation can be done with infinite precision if you use a formula.

The standard deviation does depend on different factors. For example: with MoK/Extra HW, the warriors are throwing 25 dice, whereas with MoT/shield its only 15 dice. This affects the standard deviation.

Some points to clarify:

  • I gave hatred to daemons, but I am not considering the attacks of the herald with his different profile. The analysis only tells how do regular bloodletters perform with his "buff".
  • Point Score: Remember that WoCs are 15 points while Bloodletters only 12, so matching kills from on both sides is a "point defeat" for the Warriors.
    This is why people may prefer to analyse the combat from a point exchange perspective.


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David L
The Chosen
Do you see bloodletters fielded 5-wide? I basically don't. Sometimes a size 10 unit might exist and be 5-wide, but mostly bloodletters are in horde formation.

Similarly, I don't think I would ever field khorne warriors just 5 wide. At least 6 wide, sometimes wider. Against a bloodletter horde, redeploying to 12-wide would be ideal.
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amadiss
The Chosen
David L
Feb 1 2012, 11:23 PM
Do you see bloodletters fielded 5-wide? I basically don't. Sometimes a size 10 unit might exist and be 5-wide, but mostly bloodletters are in horde formation.

Similarly, I don't think I would ever field khorne warriors just 5 wide. At least 6 wide, sometimes wider. Against a bloodletter horde, redeploying to 12-wide would be ideal.
The simulation was done with a 5 miniature front, however if you like to know what happens when a 6-front faces another 6-front multiply kill-score and point-score by
6/5, then take the difference. For 8-front vs 8-front, multiply scores by 8/5 ten take the difference, and so on...

If the fronts are not the same, use the corresponding factor for each.

Example 7-front vs 5-front: the scores from the first group get multiplied by 7/5,
the scores from the second get multiplied by 5/5 :P .
Keep in mind that an 8-front vs 5-front is identical than 7-front vs 5-front since the 8th model is too far to fight. So take into account how many models can fight.

Hordes: Multiply scores by 10/5 and then add the score from the 3rd rank,
this number will be some fraction of the score of the first two ranks. For example for Bloodletters this is half of the score coming from the first two ranks ( 20 attacks from ranks 1 and 2 another 10 from rank 3). Again, check that all Bloodletters can attack for real.


I hope this helps.

Cheers
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conjoy
Exalted Guardian
I think its really great what you've done except that I'm not sure why you are using the assumption of 5 wide. No Bloodletter unit of any size will be run this way.
Also, why would you run Khorne Warriors that way?
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rothgar13
Member Avatar
Clanlord
Either way, his simulations are a solid starting point. As was noted above, a simple multiplication factor will give you the answer you want... or you can sit down and determine the expected totals yourself. It's not to hard to crunch out some math-hammer for a given situation, provided that you remember how to apply the effects of re-rolls and changes in values needed to hit/wound on a system with a base of 6.
Edited by rothgar13, Feb 2 2012, 03:32 AM.
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amadiss
The Chosen
Thanks for all the comments I'll keep editing the post to show more clear how to get more from the table.
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amadiss
The Chosen
Marauder info posted.
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Lord Tsunami
Slave
[ * ]
hi again. thanks for the reply. i chacked the warrior stats (i have great excel sheet, bwahaha) i saw that they were correct. great job :)

one question though. i do not play WoC or DoC, so i am not entirely sure about the details, but if MoN gives the bloodletters -1 to WS it wont affect how much damage they will do. but doesnt it mean that the MoN warriors will hit the bloodletters on 3s rather than 4s? (or is MoN written so that it only affects you when you are attacking?)

Also, i feel that a standard deviation of up to 2 (thats like 50%) is very large, but since the rest of the maths is solid ill have to believe you on that one. ;)

cherios :)

ps. make an excel sheet for this. it takes me about 5 seconds to make calculate any combat with my sheet. it took a while to figure out how to write the calch for poison+hate+KB but it was worth the effort :P
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amadiss
The Chosen
Quote:
 
one question though. i do not play WoC or DoC, so i am not entirely sure about the details, but if MoN gives the bloodletters -1 to WS it wont affect how much damage they will do. but doesnt it mean that the MoN warriors will hit the bloodletters on 3s rather than 4s? (or is MoN written so that it only affects you when you are attacking?)


MoN is defensive and has an effect only when you are being attacked
(or shot).

To elaborate on what MoN does to Warriors and Marauders I'll say this:

When a MoN War is attacked by a Bloodletter we have 4WS attacking 5WS and the needed roll to hit is 4. But other mark gives 5WS against 5WS and also means a roll to hit of 4.

In contrast:

When a MoN Marauder is attacked by a Bloodletter we have 4WS attacking 4WS,
roll 4 to hit. But if the Marauder had any other mark, it would have been 5WS attacking 4WS meaning the needed roll to hit is 3. That is why marauders are protected by MoN.
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